🕧Download The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China by Kevin Rudd
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China by Kevin Rudd
A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable. The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world. Read more
If you only read one book about the contentious relationship between the US and China, it should be this one. There are many other books around that purport to examine the bilateral relationship and predict the future, but this is the only one written by someone who is a life-long student of China, who speaks Mandarin, and who knows most the important players, having been an Australian foreign service officer in Beijing, an Australian state government official, and having served as prime minister twice. Rudd begins with a tale evocative of "The Band Played Waltzing Matilda", marching in an ANZUS Day (their Memorial Day) parade with his father, a veteran of WW II, still suffering from its effects. Then he recounts the staggering losses in several wars of the 20th Century...and also Neville Chamberlain's "Peace with Honor" speech as a cautionary tale on the folly of war and the danger of willful acquiescence to tyranny which produces neither peace nor honor. Only by understanding each other can the US and China avoid a fate worse than anything those bloody conflicts produced. And, unfortunately, we do not understand each other. Rudd lays out his task...to explain why we say one thing and the Chinese hear another by examining the bilateral relationship going back to our first contact and the many historical issues that we in the US rarely consider, but are part of China's thought process even today. He examines the seemingly polar opposite views from Washington and Beijing on most important issues, but concludes that there is hope, despite the radically different world views, that we can avoid "Thucydide's Trap". But, to have any hope of doing so, we must do a much better job of understanding each other. Few US policymakers or politicians know much about China beyond politically useful slogans, even fewer actually speak the language. Fewer still know anything substantial about China's leaders or what motivates their actions. Rudd tells us by organizing much of the book around Xi Jinping's "Ten Concentric Circles of Interest", and devotes a chapter to discussion of each. As a student of China myself for 40 years, I've never seen such a logical and informed expositon of Xi's (which is China's) priorities and motivations. In the final chapters Rudd examines the US response, the politics of the Twentieth Party Congress and its crucial importance, the dangers in the coming decade and how strategic competition can be managed to avoid a war. This book should be required reading for any US politician BEFORE they open their mouth about China. Here are the facts, not some polemic or conspiracy tinged harangue by a jilted lover, like another much read book on China that purports to expose Beijing's nefarious plan for World domination. If we are to avoid the worst, we must be prepared. Thanks to Kevin Rudd, there is at least a chance that we can be.
Publisher -> PublicAffairs (March 22, 2022) Language -> English Hardcover -> 432 pages ISBN-10 -> 1541701291 ISBN-13 -> 978-1541701298 Item Weight -> 1.4 pounds Dimensions -> 6.45 x 1.75 x 9.6 inches Best Sellers Rank: #11,726 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) #4 in Chinese History (Books) #9 in Asian Politics #13 in National & International Security (Books)
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